DeeZ Picks: Week 7
Fridays in The Dumb Zone
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Salutations, folks, it’s DZ Subscriber #3695 with another edition of “Vigorish Exercise,” a DeeZ Picks companion newsletter. I’ll break down the gang’s latest round of picks, try to get you even further into debt with some laughably lackluster picks of my own, and offer up a gambling movie recommendation.
Please accept my sincerest apologies, as I usually try to write as much of this as I can on Monday so that’s it’s ready to post early Tuesday. However, I just wasn’t feeling it yesterday, as I had what seemed like a terminal case of the Mondays. Or maybe it was a Jupiter-sized dose of anxiety, mixed with a paralyzing bout of existential angst? Which one makes you want to hide in the bathtub, avoid all human contact, and eat multiple packs of king size Salted Caramel Twix? ‘Cause that’s the one I had.
Enough preamble, though, these beaks ain’t gonna wet themselves…
DeeZ Picks Week 6 Redux
Host Picks: Jake goes 5-0 and is now a game over .500. It’s a tale as old as time: Guy decides to quit drinking, guy goes to rehab, guy makes sober and dominating return to the football picks league he runs with his podcast mates. Congratulations, Jake, on both your perfect week as well as your perfect breakdown recently of the “Standing Outside the Fire” music video. While we’re here…there’s no chance Garth Brooks did the things he’s accused of, is there? Twelve-year-old me couldn’t handle the idea of Garth being guilty of Gropin’ the Wind…The Triple Play struggles for Dan continue in a 2-3 week for the Rust Belt’s favorite son. Not even an in-person trip to The ‘Land could shake him out of his TP doldrums, as Cincy’s seven-point win now has Mr. McDowell sitting at 1-6 on the season (3-18 with the 3X multiplier) in DeeZ Pick’s most important category. By the way, it’s totally a coincidence that DeShaun Watson blows out his Achilles in a home game the same weekend Dan’s back in Ohio, right? He’s above putting into some motion some sort of Jeff Gillooly-esque plan in an attempt to get the Browns’ season on track and Jameis Winston back in his life, isn’t he? If surveillance video surfaces of Rose tossing a bank robber’s mask into the Cuyahoga, I guess we’ll have our answer…Blake goes 1-4 and is now just two games out of last place. The Cowboys had a bye this week, but that didn’t stop Mr. Jones from once again completely whiffing on the forced pick game, dropping his record in those contests to an astounding 0-7. I’d like to say I hope Blake turns that around soon, but I’d be lying. I’m heavily fading his forced pick each week and, so far, I’m up 27 units. More than enough to pay for my own shitty picks and still have plenty left over for the micro-GPS tracker I installed on Blake’s car my kids’ bikes.
Guest Picks: Tough week for the guest pickers, as all four miss on their Triple Plays. UGA’s outright win on Saturday and victories by Cincy and Washington on Sunday allowed Chappy, Sirois, and Akaash to go 2-3, though, and those three gentlemen have firmly established themselves as the dudes to beat in 2024. Akaash is in first place at 23-12, and leads Sirois and Chappy by two and four games, respectively. For Akaash’s sake, let’s hope he doesn’t ape his boy DJT, who himself had an early lead a few years ago that didn’t quite work out. For anyone. Especially Ashli Babbit…Jasmine Sandry goes 1-4 after Texas and UCONN lose outright, and she’s now as close to last place as she is to second place (5 games). I hope she can turn it around soon, and I genuinely mean that. I make a lot of jokes around here, and some of them are almost funny. This is no bullshit, though: Jasmine is such good people. You’ve got to be a pretty good sport to partake in this type of endeavor anyways, but especially as the only woman in the group. She gives as good as she gets in the ball-busting department, you can tell she puts a lot of thought into her picks each week, and it’s obvious she’s all class. You may be fifth place in the DeeZ Picks standings, JS, but you’ll always be first place in DeeZ Pants. I mean in my heart. My heart. HEART. H-E-A-R-T. Definitely meant my heart. Yep, heart as a rock…
The Week Ahead
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
No fucking idea. None. The only positive aspect of hardcore Cowboys’ fandom the last thirty years of Jerry’s bumbling, buffoonish, boorish, Plan-B heavy reign is that it made betting on them easier. Almost without fail you could parse the obvious “No way the ‘Boys cover” games from the “Bet the farm on the Cowboys’ money line” contests. This year? I’ve not a goddamn clue. The obvious answer is to take San Francisco, as they’ve won and covered the last three games versus Dallas. However…have you seen the Niners play recently? They are WRECKED with skill position injuries, to the point their best healthy wide receiver right now is literally a white guy that got shot a couple months ago. Another thing I’ve noticed lately: the ratio of Kyle Shanahan’s stubble has been tilted heavily to salt over pepper. Like, damn near 80/20. Dude is stressed out having to call plays without Christian McCaffrey, and it’s showing. Give me the Cowboys here to cover. I’m also laying $5 at (+8000) odds that Zeke lines up at center more often than running back, because that’s an objectively hilarious prop.
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins (O/U 47.5)
I’m a contrarian by nature, especially when it comes to gambling, and normally this scenario screams for an Arizona cover. An indoor team from the Mountain time zone pulls off a last-second win against a good team on Monday night, then has a short week of prep ahead of a 1PM eastern kick in humid south Florida on Sunday? The textbook contrarian play here would be to take Arizona and the points. But I just can’t; Arizona is too bipolar, and betting on teams like that is a hard way to make a living. I will, however, bang the over, for no other reason than the Dolphins have yet to score more than 17 points in a game this season, and I think Mike McDaniel will have a “Fuck it, we’re emptying the playbook” mindset. Flea flickers, triple reverses, the Fumblerooski, a double pass with an offensive lineman heaving the rock that Coach McD calls the South Beach Spliff…everything’s on the table this week.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (-145 moneyline)
The Cowboys are likely the worst 3-3 team in the league, but the Eagles are most assuredly the worst 4-2 team. Their wins are against Green Bay in a game played on another continent; a 15-12 Dumpster fire win at New Orleans; a four-point victory at home over Cleveland; and a boat race of the Giants, quite possibly the worst team in the league (Non-Carolina Division). Cincy hasn’t exactly been dominant themselves, but they’ve still got Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, Trey Hendrickson, and a rock-solid coaching staff that’s not led by someone who’s most famous for crying at the Super Bowl. Add in the fact this one will be played in the Queen City, and I’m taking Skyline Chili over Pat’s Cheesesteaks.
Texas Longhorns (-18.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores
If you would have told a UT student 10 years ago that in 2024 Texas would be playing Vanderbilt in a conference game in which both squads were ranked, he probably woulda dropped both his vape and his copy of “Das Kapital” in shock. But this is kind of crazy, right? The ‘Horns are playing a conference game in Nashville against a ‘Dores unit that’s 5-2, including a win over Alabama. What a time to be alive, folks. As far as the pick, you can’t go with Texas as a nearly three-TD favorite unless you believe that Quinn Ewers is 100% healthy and has the full trust of his coaching staff. It’s very clear that neither are true, so give me Vandy and the points.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-122 moneyline) vs New York Yankees (2024 World Series)
I’m a baseball guy, and couldn’t be more fucking amped for this series. I love the Texas Rangers like I love little else, and will always cherish the run to the ‘23 title, but THIS is what a World Series looks like. Two biggest cities in the country, the two best teams in each league, the two almost certain MVPs of each league, four of the 10 best position players in the game, and all the history between the two franchises...this matchup is goddamn delicious, and I can’t wait for game one. Baseball is notoriously hard to bet on, especially seven-game series, but when in doubt go with the team that employs the best player in the series and, in this case, the world. Dodgers in seven.
Gambling Movie of the Week: Shade
If you haven’t seen “Shade,” it’s not what I’d call a good movie. It’s entertaining, and funny in ways it not likely intended by the writers and director, but it’s certainly not a masterpiece. Its biggest strength, by far, is its cast. Stuart Townsend, God Tier Sexy founding member Thandie Newton, Jamie Foxx, Melanie Griffith, Sylvester Stallone as a mysterious character called “The Dean,” the guy that played Worf in “Star Trek: TNG,” Hal Holbrook...it’s a hell of a group of actors. The movie itself is about poker, specifically folks that are adept at cheating others at poker, and I’m pretty sure it only got made because of the Poker Boom occurring at the time of its production and release (2002-2003). It’s one of those “You don’t know who’s conning who until the very end” types of films, and it’s certainly worth a look if you’ve never seen it.
Oh, shit, look at the time. Gotta go, kids. Do me a couple of favors, though, would ya? See if you can spot me at the Dumb Zone’s livestream of the Cowboys/Niners game Sunday night, as I have been cordially invited to sit in (read: I’m crashing that bitch like I’m Sam Williams in a ‘Vette). Also, check out my website, where I do the exact same thing I do here: write lazy, sophomoric jokes as I avoid doing my real job while futilely trying to feel anything other than the soul-crushing depression and ennui that is my day-to-day existence. Cheers!!!
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